That addiction remains with Schwartz today: most recently, he’s been forecasting the shape of work to come for Salesforce. So everything around me was the future being born,” and he could hardly have avoided getting hooked on the future. It was the era when LSD was still being used as an exploratory tool. It was one of the first thousand people online. “It was the early days that became Silicon Valley. His own life is a case in point: born in a German refugee camp in 1946, he eventually made his way to a place then called Stanford Research Institute. But you test your decisions against multiple scenarios, so you make sure you don’t get it wrong in the scenarios that actually occur.” The art of “scenario planning,” as Schwartz calls it, requires a fairly deep rootedness in the past. The intelligent futurist, in Schwartz’s view, aims not to get everything right. and China, climate change-related disruptions in the food supply, an “uncontrollable plague” - look rather more prescient in retrospect. But in the piece Schwartz and Leyden also provide a set of less-desirable alternative scenarios whose details - a new Cold War between the U.S. “It’s much harder to imagine how things go right.” So he demonstrated a quarter-century ago with the Wired magazine cover story he co-wrote with Peter Leyden, “The Long Boom.” Made in the now techno-utopian-seeming year of 1997, its predictions of “25 years of prosperity, freedom, and a better environment for a whole world” have since become objects of ridicule. “It’s very easy to imagine how things go wrong,” says futurist Peter Schwartz in the video above.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |